14/01/13 :-)
Time to look towards them 4 days in March!! Festival time is nearly upon us. Hopefully by the time the festival starts the weather will have coped on so that we will have proper jump racing ground. This years festival seems a bit different to me,like something is missing.
Found it,, no Kauto, no Denman , no Big Bucks , no Synchronised !!!
Who's gonna be champion with all these champs not been here.
The following are my selections for every race of the meeting. Gonna put up a horse that I think will win each race but also a horse that will have an each- way chance. Bear with me and my selections as some of them will have many selections. Just trying to get a head of the field by getting my selections out before prices shorten and horses are withdrawn.
WWW.CheltenhamFestival.net
Day 1 : March 12th
Supreme Novice Hurdle 1:30
Win selection - Jezki 4/1 , very excited about this horses future and I think will be a future Champion Hurdle winner. He's 4/4 in hurdles and has excelled and progressed in every race he has had this term. The fact that champion owner Jp McManus has shelled out a reported £500k for his services only enhances my optimism about his chances.
Each - way - Rule The World (if runs) 16/1 , could not have been any more impressive on the 6th January when he dismantled classy flat horse Minsk and last years Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever but as much as he wanted.
Arkle Trophy 2:05
Win selection - Simonsig 1/1 , Monster!! That's the first word to describe him. He isn't winning by lengths, he's winning by furlongs. Last years Neptune winner has made classy opposition look merely average. A clean run and he is a banker.
Each - way - Arvika Ligeonniere 8/1, has previous form at the course which is always a help (4th in the Albert Bartlett in 2010). Has been firing on all cylinders this year in Ireland, beating Oscar Wells last time out. Proved he can win at longer distances and can travel at a high speed so in my opinion he's the likely one to follow home Simonsig.
JLT Speciality Handicap Chase 2:20
Win selection - Alfie Sherrin 14/1 , last years winner of this race and seems to ticking away nicely in preparation for challenge in defending his crown. Has similar form as he had before he won last year so I'm not put off by his early season form.
Each - Way , Bensalem 20/1 , 2011 winner. Was destined for big things but he has had trouble with injuries ever since he won in 2011. Finally seems back to 100% and is having a prep run between now and the festival,so it could be that he will be primed for a tilt at regaining his title after that run.
Champion Hurdle 3:20
Win selection - Hurricane Fly7/2 , 2011 winner, wasn't quiet right in the race last year and was given too much to do in the race. The Fly looks back to his best this year. His run on the 29th Dec was impressive. He didn't even get out of 1st gear . Should mop up the Irish Champion hurdle on the run up to the festival.
Each - Way - Countrywide Flame 20/1, winner of the Triumph Hurdle last year. His defeat to the hands of Darlan last time out can be put down to the lack of early pace and he seemed like he didn't fancy the ground. Come March he'll get the ground and pace he wants. Can go close.
Glenfarcles Cross Country Handicap Chase 4:00
Win selection- Outlaw Pete 10/1 , He has great course experience at the course and having won there last time out,must have a great chance. He loves the extreme distances and add into the fact that he is owned by a certain Jp who has farmed this race over the last decade with multiple wins. If he was trained by Enda Bolger he'd be a short price favorite for the race.
Each - Way , Wedger Pardy 33/1 , ran his heart out in this race last year to finish 3rd and I think he is gonna be primed again for another blast at the festival.
OLBG Mares' Hurdle 4:40
Win selection - Quevega 4/5 , the undisputed queen of Cheltenham. Previously won this race the last 4 runnings of it and the only thing that can stop her making it no.5 is that if she goes for the World Hurdle now that Big Bucks is not there.
Each - Way - Kentford Grey Lady 10/1, second in this race last year and I fancy her to fill that spot ye again. Can be top class on her day.
Centenary Novice Chase
Win selection- Module 14/1 , is an extremely progressive gelding, he's one for one at Cheltenham albeit over hurdles but he was making an eye catching debut over fences until falling. He backed up that promise with a great win over ante post fav for this race Colour Squadron.
Each -way , Mount Benbulben 20/1 , the ball seems to have finally dropped for this fella over fences. Ran a good race at the festival last year. He was just touched off by promising Marito last time out. If he jumps like he did that day and settles early he could finally win that big race that's inside him.
Day 2 : March 13th
National Hunt Steeple Chase 1:30
Win selection - Back In Focus 12/1 , ticks a lot of the right boxes for me in this race. Can win races over all sorts of distances and all sorts of grounds. He's top class already so to have him in such a race , he would have to have a great chance. He showed last time out that he can battle with the best of them when he was passed by his stable mate,Aupcharlie.( Also entered in the RSA CHASE).
Each - Way , Rolling Aces 20/1 , a lot will depend on how he gets on at Doncaster on the 26th January. Has been progressing a long ok, not creating headlines. Has ran a creditable race at Cheltenham on his one and only race at the track.. Be guaranteed like Back In Focus,to have a good amateur jockey on board. A good performance on the 26th and I see his odds shortening nicely.
Neptune Investment Hurdle 2:05
Win selection - Pont Alexandre 7/1 , what a performance in the Navan Novice hurdle. Rich Ricci has another star on his hands!! I think he could be even better with the better ground. He has all the potential in the world to be a superstar. He's gonna need to be to win this race with the likes of The New One and Puffin Billy in the line up.
Each - Way , Gevrey Chambertain 16/1 , keeps getting better and better and all leads to him running a big race at the festival. Also helps that he is a brother to Grand Crus.
RSA CHASE 2:40
Win selections , Dynaste 5/2 , has the world at his feet. The only horse to beat him in the last 22 months has been a certain Big Bucks. Has taken to Chasing as if he has been doing it all his life. Has proven winning form at the course also. ( also entered in the Jewson).
Each -Way , Aupcharlie 16/1 , previously mentioned re: Back In Focus. He missed the festival last year but ran a top race in 2011 in the Champion Bumper finishing 3rd. Good enough to run Back In Focus very close and nearly beat has to give him a great chance in this of getting a place behind, Dynaste.( also entered in the Jewson).
Queen Mother Champion Chase 3:20
Win selection - Sprinter Sacre 1/2, WINNER,WINNER ,WINNER. He is a freak. After finishing third in the Supreme Novice in 2011, he has improved to be the best National Hunt horse in the world. He is making top class opponents look like Shetland ponies. He is simply breath taking to watch. His cruising speed is good enough to win top flat races and his jumping is something to behold. AWESOME!!!!
Each - Way , Sizing Europe 8/1 , crazy to think that he is available at this price but that just shows how dominate SS is. A previous winner of this race and should have won last years renewal only for a lack of notice that a fence was to be omitted. Back to winning ways this year puts him right up there to fill the forecast.
Coral Cup 4:00
Win selection - Cause Of Causes 14/1 , has been in great form apart from one blip in his last 7 runs. Was desperately unlucky not to win at the course in November when he had to switch his run as he was been hampered. Good listed win the last time in the UK and a battling victory against Midnight Game last time out puts him right in line for this. Has another run due on the 9th of Feburary. A good performance in that and there will be none of the 14/1 left.
Each -Way , Olofi 25/1 , beat the win selection at Cheltenham so can clearly handle the hill. Has ran extremely well with every run at the course so 25/1 could be massive value come the day of the race.
Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle 4:40
Win selection , Stocktons Wing 14/1 , has been bumping into really talented prospects in his last few races. He has previously beaten a horse that I have received word for at his festival which gives me more confidence in my selection. Could be yet another winner for Jp.
Each - Way , Hartside 25/1 , fits many of the trends of the previous years and the fact that he is running up to a good level is also a plus.
Weatherbys Champion Bumper 5:15
Win selection , Clondaw Court 12/1, was massively impressed by his point to point running when he won in a canter. That run was then backed up by an awesome performance in a bumper by 27 lengths with out even trying. Another potential star for Rich Ricci. Is gonna take a hell of a lot of beating on the day.
Each - Way , Captain Cutter 16/1 , won well on debut beating a highly touted horse in Kings Palace, a horse which he should be facing again on the day. Top trainer in Nicky Henderson and connections in John Magnier make him a serious contender and must be a lock in for a place.
Day 3 : March 14th
Jewson Novices Chase 1:30
Win selection - Captain Conan 6/1 , a lump of a horse. Has won grade 1's in both codes in the past year. His one and only trip to the course resulted in a very good win over a talented field whom most of them I expect to challenge the selection again.
Each - Way , none as of yet, too many horses in the early betitng have too many different entries.
Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle 2:05
Win selection
Ryanair Chase 2:40
Win Selection - Flemenstar 4/1 , that's if he turns up. His trainer Peter Casey has past comments about the sponsors owner so he would have some egg on his face if this is the race he goes for. Looked like 3m was too far for him in the Lexus so the drop back to 2m 5f looks ideal. Cue Card 6/1 if he doesn't turn up. 6/1 wont last long with Sir Des Champs still in the betting but looks like he will go for the Gold Cup instead. Cue Card is a very very good horse with ability in bundles. Travels,jumps well and has great course records.
Each Way - Realt Dubh 33/1 , Price could be very big come race day. Top class on his day. I feel he has been running at the wrong distances all year. Player.
World Hurdle 3:20
Win selection - Big Bucks... Oh wait, the freak is out for the rest of the season. Queue a record number of entries, 61, headed by the queen Quevega. It's a shame that she is only enter because he isn't there . She'll have run on the first day any way so unless her great bunch of owners fancy racing her twice in 3 days,she wont take part. REVE DE SIVOLA 8/1 is my win selection, will love the bowling along pace that is but guaranteed. Has proven he lasts the trip and has prior victories at the course in both codes.
Each -Way - Coneygree 16/1 , progressing very well this year. Has won both his starts at the track,last time out over course and distance. This will be a big step up in trip but this could be the race that puts his trainer into the spotlight.
Byrne Group Plate 4:00
Win selection - Salut Flo 16/1, is very interesting in this race. He won it last year at half the price. Hasn't run since in this race last year but has run after a long layoff. Any run between now and race time will blow away the cobwebs and should see him go well.
Each -Way - Nadiya De La Vega 20/1 , has good course experience, Was unlucky to unseat AP McCoy last time out. Hasn't been given a campaign to date with only 3 runs. Her trainer ,Nicky Henderson has a good record in this race which is a + .
Kim Muir Challenge Cup 4:40
Win selection - none
Each -Way selection NO.1 - Chicago Grey 25/1 has what it takes to win at the festival having done so in 2011. Has done nothing to shout about lately but has been contesting some top races without winning, Has one of the smartest trainers in the business in Gordon Elliott . No stranger to plundering big races in the UK.
Each - Way selection NO.2 - Bradley 20/1 , has been going along nicely with out making some of the headlines he deserves. Has run well in the festival before having raced in the Foxhunters last season. Course record is 1,8,2,1,4.2,5. Narrowly beaten by the new Welsh National winner the run before last, has a good chance at a tasty price.
Day 4 : March 15th
Triumph Hurdle 1:30
Win selection - Could be race of the day if not the festival. Some serious potential all over this field. Who does Ruby ride?? DIAKALI 10/1 has looked a real star since landing in Ireland from France. His last race was won in a canter on bottomless ground so he should stay the extra 1f needed for this. Big player.
Each Way - Sure Reef 40/1 , hasn't been seen jumping in public but have been told that he is working as well as more fancied Blood Cotil and Diakali. 40/1 for champion trainer Willie Mullins is way to big to pass up.
County Handicap Hurdle 2:05
Each - Way selection - Bothy 16/1 has been running very well as of late. Has a very good record at the track,placing in 4/5 races. The one he didn't place in was the Fred Winter at the festival in 2010. Has close form lines with some of my early selections(Olofi). With Brian Ellison as trainer anything is possible.
Albert Bartlett 2:40
Win selection - Our Vinnie 14/1 , hopefully all previous selections will have run in their races I've selected for them to run in. Our Vinnie didn't start off the best in his early career but it looks like the penny has dropped for him. His one and only trip to the UK resulted in a second place finish at the course over two furlongs more than this trip. Has since gone on to record two wins at this distance for shrewd trainer Charles Byrnes.
Each - Way , Road to Riches 25/1 , similar to my win selection with his chances depending on who runs else where. RTR has progressed with every run in 2012. Stepping up in distance each time. The extra distances never seemed to phase him. Good staying type.
GOLD CUP 3:20
Win selection - Sir Des Champs 6/1 , This could be the start of a number of Gold Cups for him. Looked like he needed his first outing this year and was too short for him. Next time out his jumping left him down in the Lexus. The fact that he got so close to classy animals in such bad conditions and with poor jumping, I'm very excited to see him in the Irish Hennessy. The quicker pace and better conditions that he'll get here will benefit him greatly. Have fancied him for this race since last year. Has twice won at the festival so the HILL wont be a problem . Can he make it 3/3 at he festival?? YES.
Each Way - First Lieutenant 14/1 , a real gutsy horse. Seems to get better every year. Has been at least placed in 17/19 runs. Fantastic jumper . His jump in the Hennessy this year was the best jump I've ever seen. Has been battling it out in the top races this year. Has won and been second on his only to starts at the course. He finished just ahead of my win selection in the Lexus recently and I feel he'll run another massive race this time.
Foxhunter Steeple Chase
Win selection - Tammys Hill 9/1 , has been running out of its skin this year, Has racked up 4 wins on the trot beaten fellow 9/1 Salsify on the previous two runs. Has won over 3 different distances in his last 4 runs and over 4 different ground conditions. Feel he'll handle the dreaded hill at the finish.
Each -Way selection - Oscar Delta 16/1 , will be his third time running in this race. Twice has finished third. Can handle the hill and also doesn't mind running in big fields. Another good run coming.
Conditional Jockeys Hurdle
Each - Way selection NO.1 - Hollow Tree 20/1 , another one who hasn't been firing on all cylinders this season but has some super past form. Beating Champion Hurdle hope Countrywide Flame last year. In my opinion Donald McCain will have him just right for the day and would be his best chance of a winner at the festival.
Each -Way selection NO.2 - Landscape 25/1 , cant believe this is the first time I've mentioned a horse trained by Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. Brother to the mighty Best Mate he has blown hot and cold since arriving from France. Can be top class on his day. Can do his late brother proud with a good running.
Grand Annual Chase
Win selection - William's Wishes 16/1 ultra consistent .. 5 wins on the trot,jumps well apart from a blunder in his last race at Sandown. Has a crazy stat that he has been at least placed in 13 of his 14 runs. Could be something special in the future. Big things ahead from him.
Each -Way selection NO.1 - His Excellency 20/1, has been running well since he left Ireland to join David Pipes yard . Winning at the course for him. No chance against the freak Sprinter Sacre at Sandown but then again no one has a chance. Dropping down in grades to race in this would give him a great chance.
Each -Way selection NO.2 - French Opera 25/1, wont be a race at his festival that Nicky Henderson will be trying to win more than this one. Named after his late father. Not just picking him for that reason though. He has some phenomenal course form and has been mixing it with the best of the best for a number of years without a big win. Fell in this last year.
So that is that. There you all my thoughts and opinions on the great festival. Will review it around the end of February due to the obvious withdrawals because of injury and whatnots. Thank you for taking the time to read this,god knows it took me long enough to finish it. Feel free to comment on anything you like wether you agree/disagree with any of my selections.
Thank.
Tom.
