Tom's Saturday selections

12.25 Turffontein - Formation 11/2

1.00 Turrfontein - Pomodoro 7/2 Nb

1.40 Turffontein - Athina 13/2

2.20 Turrfontein - Mister Cricket 5/2

2.20 Doncaster - Touberra 10/3

3.05 Kelso - Mister Nibbles 11/2

3.50 Newbury - Shangani 4/1

4.15 Kelso - Kruzhlinin 2/1

5.10 Meydan - Renew 9/1

9.17 Aqueduct - Harpoon 10/1 Nap

10.10 Gulfstream Park - No Nay Never 1/1

Tom's Meydan

                   Meydan 27th February

2.30 Kanaf 4/1

3.15 Conveyance 16/1

3.50 Wednaan 4/5 / Make It Reel 9/1

5.00 Trade Storm 9/2

5.35 Winterlude 5/2 Nap

Tom's Cheltenham ante post selections

25/02/14

Its nearly that time of the year again.. Festival time!!! Did a post for the festival last year in January which proved to be profitable so I said I'd give it another go. Left it later this time around to try solve the dilemma of horses with multiple entries and no goers. A lot of the debate regarding this years renewal is what will the official going going to be. Some biblical rain in the past week has turned all the goings to at least soft. With 16 days until the first roar goes up there would have to be a mini heat wave to dry out some of the ground.


Here we go with my selections not tips but hopefully will help with some of the races.

TUESDAY 11th MARCH

1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle

Win - Vautour 11/4  - Arrived in Ireland with a lofty hype factor following him and since he's landed he has lived up to the hype in every way possible. Uneaten in 3 starts and progressing with each run. This fella is going to be a star. Showed good fight when holding off talented WESTERN BOY in a grade 2 and then next time out showed his real class when staying on well to beat dual grade 1 winner The Tullow Tank. Could be the next big thing in racing.

Each way dangers -- Wicklow Brave 10/1 & The Liquidator 20/1


2.05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Win - Trifolium 6/1 - odds took a massive nose dive when hacking up in the Irish Arkle recently against 3 or 4 these . His over all record is very good been unplaced only once in 14 starts (5 - 6 - 2 ). Has ran at the festival once before finishing third in the Supreme in 2012 to Cinders And Ashes. Question marks about the favourite Champagne Fever,2/2 at festivals but really under preformed last time out and has a race course gallop shortly. If that doesn't go as planned we could see Trifolium start as favourite.



2.40 Festival Handicap Chase

Win - Holy Well 16/1 - In the form of his life. Has gears to win over 2m 3f and the stamina to win . Will handle what ever going comes on the day. Has won his only start at Cheltenham so getting up that hill wont be a problem. Pushed World Hurdle winner very close to within in 3 lengths. Anything near that and he should have no issues with this field.

Each way danger - Alfie Sherrin 16/1


3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle

Win - Hurricane Fly 3/1 - Simply a champion. The word legend gets thrown around too much in the equine world but simply HURRICANE FLY is a legend. Has been battling his doubters for awhile now and constantly shuts them up. Dual champion hurdle winner. First horse in 40( I believe) years to win back his title after defeat when not 100%. Has constantly been taking on the younger generation and been pushing them a side. Showed real heart to beat Our Connor in the Irish Champion Hurdle. World record holder of 19 grade 1 wins. What away to bring up 20!! Huge positive towards the FLY is the fact that Willie Mullins hasn't entered Un De Sceaux and Annie Power. It's a year too early for The New One and Our Connor, My Tent Or Yours is a hype horse, Jezki isn't suited to the track in my opinion.

Each way danger - Melodic Rendezvous 20/1.


4.00 OLBG Mares Hurdle

Win - Quevega 4/5 - They'll eventually rename this race in her honour ( I hope) . Has won the last 5 renewals of this race. This does not look a strong field. Her main market rival will not turn up ,ANNIE POWER. Its remarkable that she only runs twice a year.  Its a good thing that hey have moved the time of this race too so we actually get to see it on tv.


4.40 Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase

Win - Mendip Express 14/1 - This is always a very interesting race as none will have ran over the distance. . Didn't really fire last time out. This horse has a massive future in my opinion. It was a very close call between this lad and Black Thunder for this race and sided with Mendip as I think he'll stay all day long. Black Thunder will have a tremendous career also having taking to chasing like a duck to water. These two will be challenging each for a few good years.

Each way danger - Black Thunder 16/1


5.15 Racing4rewards Novices' Handicap Chase

Win - Une Artiste 16/1 - Loves it around here. Winning 2 of her 3 runs at the course.  Very talented but can be quirky. Had no chance with Quevega last season at the festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson had the winner of this race last year.

Each way danger - Touch The Eden 20/1


MARCH 12th MARCH


1.30 Neptune Investment Management Novice Hurdle

Faugheen 3/1 - Another Mullins /Ricci / Walsh weapon to start the day. This horse has so much potential it's scary. Ran over 3 miles to fix his temperament. Destroyed Josses Hill (fourth in the betting for the Supreme)  by 22 lengths on debut and has got better with every run since. 4 for 4 so far and it will take something special to stop him making it 5/5.

Each way danger - Sure Reef 20/1


2.05 RSA chase

Corrin Wood 10/1 - has been a revelation since switching to chasing. 3 out of 3 so far, recently touching off promising Black Thunder. Can run on any going and will have enough stamina for this. Trainer Donald McCain has been very bullish about his chances.

Each way danger - O ' Faolains Boy 16/1


2.40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

Medinas 14/1 - Wasn't expecting him to be so big in the market having won this race ( put up here at 33/1 :) ) when storming up the hill. Has been in pretty good from since that race. Finishing a close second to Tidal Bay and another second to Celestial Halo last time out. Runs very well here and the distance will not be an issue.


3.20 Betvictor Queen Mother Champion Chase

Was in the process of backing Sire De Grugy for this when the news of Sprinter Sacre been ruled out (still going to have a few euros on him at the maximum prices just incase he gets the same vet as Binocular). SDG deserves to be the favourite now but all the value has gone. I've gone with HINTERLAND ( barring he doesn't run in the Arkle)20/1. Very good around here. Distance is spot on. Trainer has a fantastic record in this.

Each way danger - Module 25/1


4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase

Enda Bolger has farmed this race in the past but there is another Cheltenham specialist that I'm siding with. BALTHAZAR KING 6/1. Two time course and distance winner. 6 total wins at the track. In very good form. Loves the stamina test. Big chance.


4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Guitar Pete 10/1 - This horse is the benchmark for form on both sides of the Irish sea. Never out of the first two. Very progressive. Narrowly beaten by Royal Irish Huzzah ( very talented)  over course and distance before winning a grade 2 and a grade 1 last time comfortably.

Each way danger - Clarcam 20/1


5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

Value At Risk 14/1 - Might come a cross as a bit strange that I'm excluding the Willie Mullins battalion in this but I definitely think this horse has a great chance. Two out three so far in bumpers and his sole defeat was a narrow second. Won his two final starts nicely. Trainer Philip Fenton has won this race before so it wouldn't come as a surprise to see this fella come roaring up the hill and winning.

Each way danger - No More Heroes 20/1

THURSDAY 13th MARCH

1.30 JLT Novices' Chase

Oscar Whiskey 7/1 - Absolutely loves it around here. Not Fast enough to win the Champion Hurdle and didn't have the stamina to take on Big Bucks in the World hurdle, apart from them two runs he has shown his taste for this place. 6 wins and two seconds. Distance is perfect for him. I'd be very disappointed if he wasn't in the thick of things coming up the hill.

Danger - Vukovar 8/1


2.05 Pretends Final Novice Handicap Hurdle

Fingal Bay 8/1 - Very excited to see this horse not only back but back to winning ways. Looked to have the world at his feet but then had injury problems. Came back hurdling after over a year off the track and won nicely over 3 miles. Should have the class to take this race at a track he has enjoyed success at before.


2.40 Ryanair Chase

Cue Card 4/1 - Final Instalment 10/1 goes for gold cup.. Hopefully connections of Cue Card will run him in this rather than the Gold Cup. I believe he's a far better horse over this distance than over 26f. Had an incredible victory in this race last term. Does like to run here. --- Final Instalments might finally get to grace the festival. He put in one of the best rounds of jumping I've seen recently. Back to his sublime best last time out. The drop back in trip will help rather than hinder. I'd love to see these two come the hill together.


3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Annie Power 3/1 - First time a very long time that i'll be going against the mighty Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. Not saying that he isn't the form of old its just that there is a new girl on the scene. And what a girl she is. Has remarkably won 10 out 10 races and all of them at different race courses. She's had her pick of entries at this festival but Mullins has always hinted at but is finally sending a wonder mare to take on Big Bucks. Yet to race over 3 miles but the way she came up the hill beating Zarkandar recently I have to believe she'll stay the extra three furlongs.

4.00 Byrne Group Plate

Bally Legend 33/1 - Tough horse. Showed real fight and determination last time out to win a grade 3 at Kempton. Has form at the course having won once here before. Has been unlucky a few times recently.  His win will have him in the right frame to run a big race. This race has a tendency to throw up some massive priced winners.


4.40 Faulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase


Indian Castle 8/1 - Don't think he'll take up his entry for the Festival handicap and will come here instead. Never out of the first two in 6 runs, 4 wins.  A good battler. Has won over 25 furlongs the two times he has taken it on. Won his only start at Cheltenham when toughing it out against good handicap yardstick in Annacotty.

FRIDAY 14th MARCH

1.30 JCB Truimph Hurdle

Calipto 5/1 - The next star belonging to Paul Nicholls. Really exciting sort who has bags of potential. Comfortably beat Activial on his second start and Activial has recently came out and hosed up to boost Calipto's form. Next time out he brushed aside the field by 5 lengths but it could have been any number. Could make a big splash in the 2015 Champion hurdle market come 1.35pm.

Each way Danger - Royal Irish Huzzar 20/1

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Gilgamboa 10/1

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

Briar Hill 5/1 - 2013 Champion Bumper winner. Has gone on in bunches since that win that catapulted in to the big time. Undefeated so far. Has the services of the top Cheltenham jockey, Ruby Walsh who he knows very well. As was seen in the bumper he will have no problem coming up the hill finish. The extra furlong could even bring out even more . Clondaw Court ante post bet is in the bin now that he is out for the season.

Each way danger - Champagne West 20/1

3.05 Betfred Gold Cup Chase

The main event of the four days and possibly of the entire jump season. Not the best of fields for such a stellar race. Silviniaco Conti is very short in the market but has a lot to find with Bobs Worth. First Lieutenant always finds one or two too good. Cue Card will probably defect to the Ryanair or Queen Mother,not that I think he'll get the 26 furlongs. Would love to see Final Instalement take in the Ryanair instead but would be the one that would take Bob out of his comfort zone. Harry Topper won very well last time but was well held by The Giant Bolster over course and distance. All that leaves super course specialist BOBS WORTH 2/1 - pretty much the best horse in the race. Winner of this race last year. Flew home in the Lexus over Christmas in Leopardstown. Can have a few jumping issues but is mega talented. 

4.00 CGA Foxhunter Chase Challenge Chase

Penmore Mill 20/1 - been lined up for this by connections all season. Had one bad run and that was his last one which was over a distance that was too far. Was traveling very well until fading late on. The drop in distance will be a major plus. 20/1 could be huge.

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Dell' Arca 14/1 - Course and distance winner on debut for trainer. Very unlucky next time out when been brought down. Last time out just couldn't get to beat Splash Of Ginge . Smart jumper. Trainer hoping to win the race named after his father . Only been one single figured winner of this race so far in its short history.

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup

This is always a puzzle of a race as it seems JP McManus enters as many runners as he can,winning the last two renewals .There's a lot of talk that Alderwood will go to the Queen Mother as tipped up by a certain Racing Post tipster. If he doesn't the 14/1 available is huge . Siding with two double figured runners in this. First one is EASTLAKE 16/1 ,course and distance winner and one of the JP crew. Second one is FRENCH OPERA 25/1 , another course and distance winner but this one has been competitive against the best around for many a year. Also trainer Nicky Henderson will be trying to win the race named after his father as he did in 2012.

Best of luck if your having a play especially on any of my selections and I hope ye all have a fantastic four days. Thanks for taking the time to read my post. It took awhile to complete but feel free to comment whether you agree or disagree. EVERYONE is entitled to an opinion,this is just mine. As I stated at the top these aren't tips. If your having a bet do so at your own risk and ALWAYS to a level that you can afford.

Thanks,

Tom 

Paddy Power Shops Better Value Novice Hurdle

February 23rd

City Slicker 9/4 - not taking with this horse and I don't believe he's the best McManus horse in the race.

Vicky De L'oasis 5/2 - not one of Willie's great ones. Wasn't good enough the last two runs. Doesn't seem to fancy testing conditions. Receives 10 lbs from City Slicker.

Minella Foru 6/1 - in my opinion the better of the two McManus runners. Only beaten once in three runs and that was in Grade 1 company in the Royal Bond. Drop down a level will suit.

Kylestyle 9/1 - too awhile to get the hang of things. But last two runs have shown very good progression. Beaten only 3 1/4 lengths by Western Boy. 1 for 1 for Jockey Andrew McNamara. Receives weight from all bar Vicky.

Empire Dirt 9/1 - think Bryan Cooper has chosen the wrong one here. Trip looks a bit on the short side. Campaigning over 20f mostly this season.

Kick On Boss( best named horse) 10/1 - This trip is too sharp for this course winner.

Real Steel 10/1 - surprised Cooper over looked this lad. Has some pretty good form. Wasn't beating very far by talented Wicklow last time.

Verdict: If Western Boy was in this he'd hose up. Taking a line through that form KYLESTYLE is the winner. Have the main dangers down as Minella Foru and Real Steel.

1: Kylestyle
2: Real Steel
3: Minella Foru

Rest of the Naas card

1:50 Fade In 20/1

2:20 Cassells Rock 6/1 / Royal Flight 12/1

4:30 See Double You 5/1

5:00 Victoria Hill 25/1 (Golantilla should win)

The shorties - Mozoltov, Twinlight & Golantilla)  all should win their races

Daniels Saturday

SATURDAY FEB 22ND

KEMPTON

2:05- ACTIVIAL 15/8 (WON)

3:15- IRVING 4/5 (WON)

LINGFIELD

4:40- FAB LOLLY 9/4 (WON)

NEWCASTLE

3:25- GETABUZZ 5/2 (FELL)

4:30- CONSIGLIERE 9/2 (2ND)

CHEPSTOW

2:30- SWNYMOR 4/1 (5TH)

FAIRYHOUSE

2:35- DALASIRI 13/2 EW (6TH)

Tom's Saturday Selections

1.25 Fairyhouse - Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle - Abbysial 4/1 - Won

2.05 Kempton - Betright Adonis Juvenile Hurdle- Actival 9/4 Nap - Won

2.40 Kempton - Betright Mobil Pendil Novice Chase - Fox Appeal 6/4 - 3rd

3.10 Fairyhouse - At The Races Bobbyjo Chase - Mount Benbulben 6/4 ( please JUMP) - 2nd

3.15 Kempton - Skybet Dovecote Novice's Hurdle - Irving 6/5 ( believe he's a star) - Won

3.50 Kempton - 3.50 Skybet Chase - Planet Of Sound 9/1 - 7th

Caulfield

5.35am - Moment Of Change 13/8 - Won

6.10am - Earthquake 5/2 - Won

6.45am - Shamal Wind 13/2 Nap - 7th

Daniels Friday Bets

FRIDAY FEB 21ST

LINGFIELD

3:00- WELSH INLET 7/1 EW * (3RD)

4:00- COMBUSTIBLE 8/1 EW *

WARWICK

4.10-AFTER EIGHT SIVOLA 7/2

5:10- HINTON MAGIC 7/1 EW *

EXETER 

4.20- DARE TO ENDEAVOR 4/1

WOLVERHAMPTON

7:30- TARRAFAL 5/1

8:00- DANSILI DUTCH 7/2 

DUNDALK

7:45- NOT YOUR CALL 5/1

9:15- CULLENTRY LOYAL 10/1 EW *

* EW LUCKY 15

Daniels Meydan

THURSDAY FEB 20TH

MEYDAN

3:15- ANAEROBIO 9/4

3:50- INTRIGO 8/1EW

4:25- HOTOTO 6/1

5:00- CLON BRULEE 12/1EW

6:10- QUICK WIT 10/1EW

Daniels Kempton

WEDNESDAY FEB 19TH

KEMPTON

5:25- ROYS LEGACY

5:55- TRIPLE CHOCOLATE 5/1

6:25- THE YOUNG MASTER 4/1

6:55- OPUS 5/1

7:25- NOVELLEN LAD 9/2

7:55- SWIVEL 4/1

8:25- SPEECHDAY 5/2

8:55- SUPA SEEKER 9/1 EW

Tom's Meydan

MEYDAN

3.15 District One - Anaerobio 5/2

Very surprised to see Soumillion get down off this lad. Multiple course and distance winner who still seems to be improving. Won group 2 comfortably last time out.

3.50 Meydan Sobha - Taylor Said 16/1

Very good horse. Has the speed to win sprints over 4,5,6 & 7 furlongs but also the stamina to win over 8 & 9. Slight negatives over the draw and the lay off but this horse has so much speed the draw shouldn't hinder that much and trainer Appelby has already shown that he can bring a horse back from long layoffs very well.

4.25 Meydan Sobha Phase II - Catcall 6/1

Top Class sprinter in France. Narrowly beaten a neck twice in his last two runs, one in group 1 and other in group 2 company. Nothing of that sort of company in this field. Should take a hell of a lot of beating.

5.00 District One Phase I - Cat O'Mountain 9/4 

Seems not to like grass much but show this fella AW and he becomes a totally different animal. Unbeaten on his five starts on the all weather. Won well here last time out. Only slight negative is been drawn in 12 but I believe he'll be able to get cover before making his move on the final bend,  picking them all off before powering away to victory.

5.35 Blanachine Sponsored by District One - Certify 8/13

Went against this filly on seasonal debut due to her imposed ban for attending. Al Zarooni's cocktail parties. She showed us all what we were missing when winning a group 2 as handy as she liked beaten her main rivals in this race so effortlessly. Flotilla will have came on for her run but still won't be good enough. She's a real superstar and it's great to see her back.

6.10 Dubai Millennium Stakes Sponsored by District One - Tasaday 4/1

Ran no sort of race on course debut but I'm putting that down to a bad ride in my opinion . Was boxed in for a lot of the race. Easily has the best form and the step back up to 10f should see her victorious. Beaten once over 10 furlongs and that was by a very good filly in Dalkala, multiple group winner in Europe. A better ride in this will see her reverse form with Mujaarib

All prices are from William Hills as of 5.39pm. Best of luck if your having a bet at Meydan.

Tom's Southwell

1.55 Self Employed 6/1

2.25 Samoset 7/2

3.00 Au Renoir 16/1

3.35 The Dandy Yank 5/1

4.05 Red Biba 40/1

4.40 Daliance 5/2 - laying Noguchi (11/8)

5.10 Streethowlingmama 8/1

Tom's Wetherby

1.45 Lean Burn 7/2

2.15 Cherry's Bay 80/1

2.50 Forty Crown 5/1

3.25 Wood Yer 15/8

3.55 Fine Rightly 1/1

4.30 Massena 1/2

5.00 Millicent Silver 6/4

Daniels Southwell

TUESDAY 18TH FEB

SOUTHWELL

1:55- QUEEN OF SKIES 7/2

2:25- FIRE IN BABYLON 9/4

3:00- YEAH BABY

3:35- THE DANDY YANK 13/2 EW

4:05- SPITFIRE

4:40- NOGUCHI

5:10- ITS ALL A GAME 5/1

Daniels Wolverhampton

MONDAY FEB 17TH

WOLVERHAMPTON

2:15- RED SKIPPER 13/2 EW

2:45- FUNKY MUNKY 5/2 NAP

3:15- THE BLUE DOG 5/2

3:45- ABYAAT 15/8

4:15- COLOUR MY WORLD 4/1 NB

4:45- SILKEN EXPRESS 11/1 EW

5:15- RIVER GODDESS 6/1

5:45- CONRY 7/1 EW

Tom's Wolverhampton

WOLVERHAMPTON 17TH FEBRUARY

2.15  OLYNARD 33/1


2.45 WHISKEY N STOUT 4/1


3.15 THE BLUE DOG 3/1


3.45 COLITTE CAILIN 2/1


4.15 KINDLELIGHT STORM 11/4


4.45 DANGEROUS AGE 5/1 Nb


5.15 TRUST THE WIND 15/8


5.45 MUNAAWIB 5/1 Nap

Daniels Navan

SUNDAY FEB 16TH

NAVAN

2:10- DUNGUIB 11/4 (WON)

2:40- BLACK SPOT ON 10/1 EW (3RD)

3:10- MALLOWNEY 6/4 (2ND)

3:45- COOTAMUNDRA 13/2

4:20- COURT JESTER 7/2 (WON)

4:50- HARD STATION 9/1 EW

Tom's Navan

2.10 Dunguib 11/4 - previously top class ran creditably after a huge lay off and trainer Philip Fenton has already proved he can get a star fit again(Last Instalment). Vaidpour10/11(laying)can be exceptionally good but then can be woeful so I'm opposing.

3.10 Mallowney 7/4 - was running a cracking race last time out when falling. Hopefully that didn't take much out of him as he got up straight away. Will love the conditions having won on heavy many times. Distance looks spot on unlike for Bright New Dawn5/4(laying) who is racing over a distance that's way too short in my opinion.

4.50 Hard Station 16/1 - Was traveling like a train in front on race course debut when spooked by the cross section of the road and ran out. Was hoping for a different jockey next time out but same apprentice is on board today. Really didn't expect to see him at this price(backed in from 25/1 -6/1for debut) but the presence of Vivega 4/6(laying) is the reason for the big price. Vivega is full brother to super mare Quevega but is rumoured to be average. All the hype around this horse is not the horses fault and I hope he becomes very good in the future. Lord Scoundrel 4/1 looks better value than the favourite.

Kempton 4.40 Cappallanus 33/1

How can people back My Tent Or Yours at 2/9? He's priced up on his jumping ability. Taking the chance with Brian Ellison's charge. Has won on the aw before over the distance. This will be a lot harder but rather back him at 33/1 than MTOY at 2/9

Daniels Saturday Bets

SATURDAY FEB 15TH

ASCOT

2.05- MANY CLOUDS 7/4

3.50- CAPTAIN CHRIS 1/1 *

HAYDOCK

2.20- CELESTIAL HALO 11/10 *

2.55- HAWKES POINT 9/1 EW

4.35- DUNGEEL 7/2

WINCANTON

1.55- BLUE BUTTONS 11/4

3.35- MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 5/4 *

LINGFIELD

2.15- SCOTTISH STAR 7/1 EW

3.25- BIRDMAN 12/1 EW

* TRIXIE

Tom's Saturday selections

Fantastic looking days racing today. Hopefully Wincanton will have got the go ahead due to the adverse weather that has happened over the British and Irish Isles.


1.55 Wincanton - The Pirate's Queen 6/1

 Taking on two hot unexposed runners from the red hot Fry yard and his teacher Paul Nicholls . Last run has the best form in the race. Separated two good horses from both sides of the Irish sea over this level. Breeding says she'll handle the heavy.

2.05 Ascot - Gevery Chambertin 5/2

Potential to be very very good. Brother to Grand Crus. Should be up to taking this having won his one and only time over 24 f . Don't understand why he isn't favourite as I fully believe he should be. The fav Many Clouds is yet to win over the distance.


2.20 Haydock - Celestial Halo 11/10

Simply should be too good for this evening including the weights and sex allowances .


2.25 Gowran Park - Bog Warrior 9/4

Personally think 9/4 is huge. Best form in the race. Isn't favourite because he's coming off a layoff and isn't trained by Willie Mullins, Has the best form when easily beaten World Hurdle Champion Solwhit by over 6ls.


2.40 Ascot - Houblon Des Obeaux 11/2 Nap

2 for 3 over course and distance and even the he was beat less than 2 lengths by Paul Nicholls Gold Cup runner Rocky Creek. Will handle the conditions.


2.55 Haydock - Nuts And Bolts 14/1 Nb

Last run was worse than imaginable . Gonna put that down to been off the course over 200 days, Has won on on heavy and over course and distances on his only time at the track.


3.35 Gowran Park - Un De sceaux-

Really will be too good for this crowd. For some he may be the Champion Hurdle winner next month


3.35 Wincanton Zarkandar 7/4

People who seen my tweet regarding the champion hurdle next month must be thinking I'm away with the birds. Yes I said Melodic Rendezvous will be the only horse to challenge the HURRICANE next month if it stays a bog(I dont see a heat wave coming either). Preference is with Zarkandar tho due to him winning 3/3 at the track and 2/2 over course and distance. Also hs the best form in the race. This may well be his Cheltenham main event as he isn't good enough to win the Champion Hurdle. Will Melodic want to run his festival race in testing race ground? Doubt he'll be giving a hard time if push comes to shove.


3.50 Ascot - Medermit 12/1

Off for a long time!! But loves been off the track nearly as much as been on it. The Alan King yard ws suffering from a virus but since then has been firing well . Medermit can handle the time off the track well. 12/1 may look huge about 4.00pm


4.05 Haydock - Touberra 6/1

Taking on a hot one in Oscar Rock. Will love the ground conditions . 2/3 on heavy with the last two been very decisive . Think the mares allowances will be crucial in this race.


FLEMINGTON

Race 6 - Huckelbuck 5/2


Race 7 -  Unpretenious 14/1


Race 8 - Nevis 7/2


Race 9 - Foundry  8/1

Tom's Meydan

UAE 2,000 GUINEAS DAY

2.45 Ford F-150 Raptor Trophy - Winterlude 5/1

2 for 2 on all weather and 2 for 2 for Barzalona. Bolted in on aw debut over 9 1/2 f and then won nicely over 12f on next run on aw. Only time he has been beaten on a sound surface was when hampered a couple of times on debut.

3.20 UAE 2,000 Guineas sponsored by Al  Tayers Motors - Long John 9/4

Was very good in Australia. The Cox Plate was too far for Long John last time. One for one over the mile distance. Extremely quick horse. First run on AW but that shouldn't be a problem as been by super sire Street Cry. Emirates Flyer has the best European form but the draw is a big negative and will he last the trip( sire was a sprinter) ? 

3.55 Ford Taurus Trophy -  Vercingetorix 4/1

Very talented but can get bored and lonely. Unbeaten on four starts. Had the speed to win a grade 2 over 8f and the stamina to win grade 1 over 10f. Don't see the drop down to 9f a problem at all. Christophe Soumillion gets off unlucky loser El Estruendoso to ride this.

4.30 Firebreak Stakes sponsored by Ford Explorer sport - Variety Club 3/1

The best horse on show today. Best miler in South Africa(and they have some top ones). Beating once over a mile (8/9 so far) and even then that was in a grade 1 beaten a 1/2 length in second. Overall record is incredible (14-3-1 from 19 starts). Has made a living of beating champions and multi grade1 winners ( beach beauty+ Jackson, to name two). First time on AW but sire had won on it before.

5.05 Al Shindagha sponsored by Ford Mustang Shelby - Union Colour 7/1

Beat 6 of these last time out when winning. Was rattling home in a group 1 last carnival from well off the pace to be beat 1 1/2 lengths by Reynaldothewizard. Since then had two runs finishing a neck back in second  on penultimate start in a conditions race before winning a listed race. Big chance.

5.45 Ford Edge Sport Trophy - Meandre 5/1 / Top Class 10/1

On previous form would win this pulling his horse box. Beaten a length by Orfevre,  1 1/2 by Novellist,  beating Shareta. Multiple group winner in France and Germany. Last win came in September in a group 1 when rightly reinstated as winner after been wrongly disqualified. Second that day( later demoted to fourth) was Empoli,  who runs in this,  Meandre was giving away 6/7lbs that day for a neck victory and only has to give 2 today. Top Class could out run his odds today. Has finished second twice over course and distance to classy Anatolin and Certarach.

Tom's Wolverhampton

WOLVERHAMPTON

2.30 - Trying to think outside the box here in this race. Can not work out why Auntie Mildred is so short in the market and can't see her doing the job.  I think there is value to backing two horses in this. This is where the out side the box thinking comes in as both horses are 20/1. 1st horse is top weight ATTAWAAB. Course and distance winner off 20lb higher in the past. Hasn't won for awhile but has ran a couple of decent races in between wins. Has shown signs to prove that he can run a big race in this. 2nd horse is LUCKY MELLOR , ran a creditable race last time out when hanging slightly a couple of furlongs from home and finished in a bunch. Well drawn in 1. Has form tied in with my other selection from a couple of years back when 2nd off 34lb higher today and has another valuable 7 taken off by the claimer. He was giving Attawaab 17lb(including claimer) that day for a 1 3/4 loss.


4.00 Big Baz 5/4 - lightly raced. Undefeated in 2 runs. Receives all the weight for age allowances. Absolutely bolted up from off the on debut and backed that up with a very stylish win over course and distance. Could potentially be very good.


4.30 Epic Battle 3/1 - Course and distance winner . Back down 2 grades to previous winning level. Has to compete with undefeated Fleckerl but Epic Battle is still unexposed and still has more to offer. Services of Frankie Dettori  are a plus.


5.00 Blue Oyster 4/1 - showed real grit and determination last time out over course and distance against a Qatary hot pot under Ben Curtis. Upped two lbs for that win but the filly/mare allowances counter that . I believe there's still a lot of improving to come for this filly.

Tom's Leopardstown

IRISH HENNESSY GOLD CUP DAY

1.15 Gala Retail Spring Juvenile Hurdle - Ivan Grozny 11/10

Previously very classy on the flat in France finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind in a group 3 over there. On debut in Ireland over hurdles he was beaten a head by Plinth,who reappears today. Plinth seemed to get first run on Ivan Grozny that day(Plinth did finish like a train that day after a mistake at the last). Ivan Grozny then came out and smashed his rivals by 16 lengths on testing ground. The weather in Ireland the past week has been appalling the past week and the ground today is certainly going to make this a test in which I see IG turning the tables on Plinth this time around as I don't think the ground will suit the O'Brien runner.Taking a line through Sea Beat,who beat a horse I really fancied on Saturday, Plinth beat him by 2 1/4 lengths with AP giving him everything in the locker. IG beat Sea Beat by over 16 1/4 lengths. Not saying IG will Plinth by anything near that margin but I do believe he'll beat him in this.


2.15 Deloitte Novice Hurdle -Vautour 7/4

Yet another Ricci/Mullins/Walsh machine. Very well talked about before he made his Irish debut. Very well backed that day in to well odds on. Did everything that was needed for that day. Next up he took on the very promising Western Boy in grade 2 company. Showed real grit when joined and looked like passed after the final hurdle to get back up by 3/4 lengths. Ricci couldn't hid his excitement about Vautour and his Cheltenham possibilities. Doesn't have the best form in the race but I believe he has the potential to go on to be a star starting with this.


2.45 Dr. P.J Moriarty Novice Chase -Ballycasey 2/1

Beaten only once so far in his career and that was by Morning Assembly over a distance I think was too far. Had his backers with hearts in the mouth (including mine) last time out when appeared to be toiling around in third and picked up and flew home to win handily in the end. Will cope with the ground conditions and especially if any of the overnight rain its in to it.


3.50 Hennessy Gold Cup -Last Instalment 5/1

Delighted to see this horse back on the race track. His race record is 9 starts with 6 wins and two thirds,failing to finish once.  Had setback after setback for two years. Was off over 700 days before his comeback last month where he finished third to Texas Jack but if he doesn't get the "bounce factor" I think he can show he is good enough to take this . 2/2 at Leopardstown including a course and distance win over favourite for this First Lieutenant by 6 lengths. He has never managed to get to the Cheltenham festival but with a win or even a good showing in this and it will be all systems go for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.


Thanks for taking the time to read my posts and feel free to comment,whether you agree or not.
Good luck if your having a bet today.
Tom

Tom's Saturday selections

Naas 1.15 Le Vent D'Antan 4/6 - was coming with a very strong and in my opinion winning challenge when colliding in the air with Daneking at the second last . Will have the testing ground. - 2nd

Naas 1.45 Beylery Babe 15/8 - won a good grade 2 chase last time out beating subsequent winner Une Artitse (won yesterday). Could turn out to be a very good mare. Has a line on the Mullins hot pot with a line through Glen's Melody . Cant have the favourite as she's off the track over 250 days and has the tendency to fall,good luck if you back her at odds on. -2nd

Newbury 1.50 Upswing 7/2 - progeessing nicely this year. Was traveling very well when fell last time out. Has had time off since then show hopefully will be no worse for the fall. - Won

Warwick 2.05 Glens Melody 11/8 - closely matched with Mischievous Milly who she beat last time out. They clash again off level weights and I can only see the winning distance been bigger this time. Clearly the best mare in this race. Won

Newbury 2.25 Harry Topper 7/2 - Willing to take on Al Ferof especially at the prices. HT was running a belter of a race last time out at Cheltenham when fading 2f out in the mud so I think the drop in distance and the testing conditions will see him bang there at the business end. Won

Lingfield 2.35 - Picansort 2/1 - Not often I  get involved in the AW on a Saturday but found it hard not get involved with this fella. Back down in distance and down 2 grades,last two runs at class four have resulted in two wins. Only negative is the jockey. 4th - disgraceful ride from Kelly

Newbury 3.00 Module 2/1 - rated two pounds higher than fav dodging bullets and receives 3lb. Drop back down to what i believe to be his best distance, 2/2 over 17f. The heavy going wont be a problem ,2/2 in the mud. - Won

Newbury 4.10 Mendip Express 15/8 - I believe this fella is a star in the making. Won very well last time out. 7/7 in point to points , 3/3 in chases. - 3rd

Naas 4.35 No More Heroes 5/6 - this looks a match race between the the Gigginstown pair. But I've sided with No More Heroes. Milsean(or the sweet) looked good in winning last time out but nothing compared to NMH. He decimated his rivals by 39ls on his last run and feel the ground and etra distance will suit better than fellow gigginstown inmate. Won

Newbury 4.40 Definitly Red 5/1 Won- taking a chance on this. Won well last time out in very testing conditions. Very tricky race this with so many unexposed types in this . Each way option would be Imagine The Chat 8/1. He gave 20lbs to Ron' Dream last time when beating him by 3/4 length after getting tired and started hanging.

Tom's Kempton

1.30 Xaarcet 16/1


2.00 No Substitute


2.30 Nozic 8/1 Nap


3.05 Harry's Farewell 15/2 + Grace And Fortune 25/1


3.35 Batonnier 3/1


4.10 Midnight Appeal 7/1 Nb


4.40 Third Act

Daniels Meydan

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH

MEYDAN

3:15- EASTERN RULES 9/2 (WON)

3:50- AUTUMN LILY 5/1 (UNP)

4:25- MENSOORA 9/2 (2ND)

5:05- CERTERACH 5/1 (3RD)

5:40- BATTLE OF MARENGO 10/1 EW (UNP)

6:15- EL ESTRUENDOSO 9/4 (2ND)+ DUX SCHOLAR 9/1 EW (UNP)

DONCASTER

4:10- BILLY CUCKOO 7/1 EW (WON)

HUNTINGDON 

3:25- DAWN TWISTER 6/1 (UNP)

WOLVERHAMPTON 

7:00- VODKA TIME 8/1 (UNP)

7:30- MARMOT BAY 6/1 EW (UNP)

Tom's Meydan

3.15 Eastern Rules 6/1

3.50 Pretend 7/4

4.25 Ithimal 7/4

5.05 Certarach 11/2

5.40 Heavy Metal 10/1 + Zahee 12/1

6.15 Edu Querido 12/1+ Avon Pearl 33/1

Tom's Kempton

Just two that stood out for me at Kempton. Going against two strong favourites .

Kempton 5.00 Vhujon 7/1 (Bet365)

Have spoken to numerous people about this race about the possibility of this been a race that has a plot in it. VHUJON is the one that jumped out at me as been a well placed horse. He has been running over further than today and drops back to the 5f at Kempton for the first time in over a year. Has won over course and distance off 4lb higher than the weight been shouldered today. Hasn’t been the force of old but I feel the return to 5f here will spark him into life. Has won off 29lb higher (albeit over 6f) here in the past and has been second off 31 lb higher. Definitely feel he’ll run his race and be involved at the business end of things.

1pt win 7/1 bet365

Kempton 8.00 Welliesinthewater 25/1 Ladbrokes,PP & Hills)

Don’t think we’ve seen the best of this horse yet. Yet to prove he stays the 6f fully, dwelling at the start last time out didn’t help matters. Been by a favourite sire of mine(footstepsinthesand) I really think he’ll stay once he gets his head right,is today the day to cop on?? Lightly raced and the help of ultra talented Joe Fanning,who won on the horse the one and only time that he has ridden, are positives. 25/1 is too big.

0.5pt ew 20/1 bet365

0.5pt ew double 

Tom's Kempton

1.30 Capone - 3 time course and distance winner. Has won at much higher levels over c/d and think the drop into a claimer will do the job to spark life into him. Negative has to be Shane " I'll fu#k it up somehow " Kelly but even he has proved that he can ride winners lately.

2.00 Ray Of Joy 9/2 Nap - 5 time winner here at Kempton over c/d and all up in grade. And I think the others have a lot to prove. Think the favourite (Welsh Sunrise) needs further.

2.30 Azabitmour 5/1 Nb - ran a good race last time out of c/d. Has the talented Hayley Turner in the saddle and has a plumb draw in one and also has to carry a feather weight. Only negative is that he is a bit of a nutcase and can some time drop anchor and decide he just doesn't want to do it on that day.

3.00 Have this race between two horses, one has only it's only start at the distance ( The Young Master 11/8) albeit at Southwell and the only course winner ( Go Amwell 11/1 ). Go Amwell hasn't won in a million years but I think will give it a blast here. The Young Master has to prove he likes it here and for that I'm taking the chance on GO AMWELL.

3.30 Beylerbey - must have had a problem somewhere along the line to only be making her debut today as a four year. I'm taking a chance on her due to been Impeccabily bred and the connections form has been in red hot form.

4.00 Diplomatic 9/2 - in the form of his life with three wins and a second in last four starts. Slight negative is the wide draw but with a bit of tactics should do the job.

4.30 Rowan Ridge 9/1 IWAC - made encouraging comeback after a long layoff recently. Has performed well here in the past and is taking on the chance that he won't have the " bounce factor".

5.00 Graylyn Ruby 9/1 - form ties in with favourite Midnight Sequel when second by 3ls over c/d. Has the services of top class Luke Morris for today and is taking to reverse form with MS.

Tom's Meydan

2.50 Police Force 16/1

3.25 Press Room 11/8

4.00 Oasis Dancer 11/2

4.35 Hattaash 2/1

5.15 Entifaadha 10/1 + Otaared 50/1

5.50 Puzzlemaker 7/2

Welsh Champion Hurdle

2.05 This race might not have the razzmatazz of the Cheltenham or Irish renewals but does take a good horse to win it. In my opinion this race is between the top two Saphir Du Rheu & Whisper.

SDR 15/8 came out on top the last time they crossed swords. Fair enough he beat Whisper by 9 1/4 lengths but that was on level weights and there's an 6 lb (including Derham claim) pull in WHISPER'S favour today.

WHISPER 9/4 did finish behind HOME RUN that day but HOME RUN was in receiving massive weight before you even take off the claimed 7lb allowance. There was only 1 1/4 lengths between the pair and I see no reason why that won't be reversed today. WHISPER - owned by the race course owner will have been set up for this all campaign and is 3/3 at Ffos Las twice over C/D.

GRAND VISION 9/2 looked to be getting back into form with a good second last time out but is a horse that wants further than this.

ALAIVAN 8/1- Not guaranteed to stay but has good form over shorter distances and it wouldn't be a Saturday without a Jonjo O'Neill plot, has the services of talented claimer Maurice Linehan on board.

AWAYWITHTHEGREYS 9/1- Is in the same boat as GRAND VISION and should find this too sharp for his liking.

HOME RUN  16/1 - Would be my each way play in the race if there was 8 runners but will need luck to trouble the market leaders today. Edgar takes off what could be a vital 7lbs in these very testing conditions and with that HOME RUN will carry a feather weight today.

SWNYMOR 20/1- This was meant to be one of the up an coming stars last term but since he fell when coming to challenge at Chepstow in January 2013 and then again there in October 2013 he seems to have lost the will to be a fighter. Sometimes looks like he really doesn't want to be there at all. I'm all for backing outsiders but can't see him playing any part. I would like to see that he still has some heart and the want to be a race horse and run a decent race.

My win selection - WHISPER 9/4
My ew selection - HOME RUN 16/1